The first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product is scheduled to be reported Thursday morning, and while economists forecast slower growth than in the first quarter, the results might be better than expected.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the first estimate of second-quarter GDP before the markets open on Thursday. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect GDP to rise in the second quarter by 1.5%, down from the first quarter’s 2% increase.
Economists are mostly anticipating a slowdown in growth in consumer spending. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales rose at a slower pace in June as consistently high inflation and rising interest rates continued to affect shoppers.
“Consumers are still willing to spend, but they have become increasingly cautious and selective with their outlays amidst still-high prices and tougher financing conditions. This has translated into much slower consumer spending momentum after a strong start to the year,” EY chief economist Gregory Daco wrote on Monday.
But even though economists expect GDP to decline, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model, which runs an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data, anticipates GDP growth of 2.4%. The Atlanta Fed said that following the housing starts report from the Census Bureau on July 19, they increased their expectations for real growth in residential investment in the second quarter.
Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner sees growth in nonresidential investment as another positive factor.
“Consumption is slowing, core inflation is sticky but decelerating, job growth is slowing, the housing correction has bottomed, and the Fed is set to deliver a final 25bp hike,” Zentner wrote in a report on July 21. “But industrial policy is fueling a boom in manufacturing and nonresi construction that we had accounted for but
underestimated.”
She expects second-quarter annualized GDP growth of 1.8%.
The GDP report will be the first piece of economic data following the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, which ended with a quarter-point increase in the bank’s target for the fed-funds rate. That leaves it at 5.25% to 5.5%.
Any data that show a weaker economy than economists anticipate won’t bode well for the markets as recession concerns continue to loom.
“While the consumer is looking better than six months ago, headwinds to the economy from the Fed’s tight monetary stance will persist in the second half of 2023, limiting activity in interest-rate sensitive sectors like manufacturing and construction,” Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote on Tuesday.
Write to Angela Palumbo at [email protected]
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