Russia-Ukraine war updates for November 7, 2023.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed extending the current export ban on Ukrainian natural gas for the whole of 2024, according to a presidential decree, translated via Google.

Ukraine initially introduced the export ban soon after the invasion in February 2022, and it was then extended to cover 2023.

The decree included a proposal for the “establishment in 2024 of a zero export quota for gas of natural Ukrainian origin” in a list of measures to be taken within the next six months.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heavily impacted global gas supply chains, sending gas prices skyrocketing in the initial weeks of the war.

— Hannah Ward-Glenton

Ukraine has managed to fully restore 421 health facilities damaged by Russian forces, the Ukrainian health ministry said in a statement, according to a Google translation.

Russia has damaged a total of 1,468 medical centers in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion in February 2022, while 193 have been totally destroyed, the ministry said.

The health ministry said it “is working on the reconstruction of Ukrainian hospitals and creating conditions so that [Ukraine’s] heroic doctors, despite the war, can fully work and provide the necessary medical care to every patient.”

— Hannah Ward-Glenton

NATO allies on Tuesday condemned a decision by Russia to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which was a key post-Cold War treaty, adding that, as a consequence, they intended to suspend the operation of the treaty as long as necessary

“Allies condemn Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), and its war of aggression against Ukraine which is contrary to the Treaty’s objectives. Russia’s withdrawal is the latest in a series of actions that systematically undermines Euro-Atlantic security,” said NATO in a statement.

“Therefore, as a consequence, Allied States Parties intend to suspend the operation of the CFE Treaty for as long as necessary, in accordance with their rights under international law. This is a decision fully supported by all NATO Allies.”

Earlier on Tuesday, Russia had formally withdrawn from this landmark security treaty which limited key categories of conventional armed forces, blaming the United States for undermining post-Cold War security with the enlargement of the NATO military alliance.

— Reuterfs

A large convoy of Russia equipment is moving through the Russian-occupied southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol toward Berdiansk, and is believed to be en route to the strategic Russian-occupied stronghold of Tokmak, according to Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the usurped Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol.

“Military movement Melitopol – Mariupol. Convoys of equipment, helicopters near Berdiansk, dozens of trucks with ammunition [moving] through Mariupol,” he said on Telegram Tuesday, adding that the column was “disappearing” toward the front line.

Andriushchenko said it’s believed that Russia is looking to send reinforcements to the major rail and road hub Tokmak, an occupied city whose defense is seen as a priority for Russia as it looks to maintain its grip on a swathe of southern Ukrainian territory, including key cities Melitopol and Mariupol.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay an official visit to Kazakhstan on Thursday, the Kremlin said Tuesday.

Putin will hold talks with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the leaders will discuss “key issues of the further development of Russian-Kazakh relations of strategic partnership and alliance, prospects for interaction within the framework of integration associations in the Eurasian space, as well as current regional and international problems,” the Kremlin said, according to comments published by TASS news agency.

“As a result of the visit, a number of important joint documents are expected to be signed. The presidents will also make statements for the media,” the Kremlin said. 

Putin’s visit comes as the West and China try to woo oil and mineral-rich Central Asian countries including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and and Uzbekistan, prompting anger in Moscow that sees the region as its traditional sphere of influence.

Read more here: Russia fumes at the West’s charm offensive in its backyard, saying it’s ‘luring’ its friends away

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian state company Rostelecom confirmed on Tuesday that a fibre optic cable under the Baltic Sea had been damaged last month and said it was now being repaired.

The company did not respond to emailed questions from Reuters asking what caused the outage and whether it could be linked to other incidents last month that damaged a gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia and two other telecoms cables connecting Estonia to Finland and Sweden.

In a statement, it said the damage was first recorded on Oct. 7 but that it had not affected communications between Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad and the rest of the country.

— Reuters

Ukraine’s “capability to hit” shipbuilding infrastructure in Russian-occupied Crimea will likely prompt Russia to consider relocating such infrastructure further away, delaying the delivery of new vessels, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense said Tuesday.

Ukrainian and Russian sources both reported on Nov. 4 that a newly built Russian naval corvette was almost certainly damaged after being struck while alongside at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch in occupied Crimea.

“The KARAKURST-class Askold, launched in 2021, had not been commissioned into the Russian Navy. The incident is farther to the east in Crimea than most previous Ukrainian-claimed long-range strikes,” the ministry said in an intelligence update on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“Ukraine’s capability to hit Crimean shipbuilding infrastructure will likely cause Russia to consider relocating farther from the front line, delaying the delivery of new vessels,” the U.K. said.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly decided to run in the March 2024 presidential election and he’s likely to win another six-year term in office, essentially because there’s no one that can oppose him.

The Kremlin continues to refuse to confirm that Putin, 71, is set to run when the vote is held in March next year but six unnamed sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin is ready to run again.

With little to no political opposition in Russia — given that prominent Putin critics have fled the country or been systematically jailed by the Russian authorities — it’s likely that Putin will be in office until at least 2030, and could continue his tenure until 2036.

Analysts say that the bitter truth in modern Russia is that there is no one who can oppose Putin, for now.

Read more here: Putin looks set to run for president in 2024 — and there’s no one who can oppose him right now

It’s “irresponsible” to talk of holding elections during wartime, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday, saying discussions around holding a vote in March 2024 were inappropriate when Ukraine is focused on fighting Russia’s invasion.

“We all understand that now, in wartime, when there are so many challenges, it is absolutely irresponsible to throw the topic of elections into society in a lighthearted and playful way,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address.

“We must realize that now is the time of defense, the time of the battle that determines the fate of the state and people, not the time of manipulations,” he added.

There has been some talk around whether Ukraine, which is operating under martial law, should hold a presidential vote next spring. On the one hand, Kyiv wants to demonstrate its commitment to democratic processes as it looks to join the EU, but there are also concerns that a political distraction is the last thing Ukraine needs right now as its fight against Russia hangs in the balance, with little overall progress in retaking territory, and largely attritional warfare.

“I believe that now is not the right time for elections. And if we need to put an end to a political dispute and continue to work in unity, there are structures in the state that are capable of putting an end to it and giving society all the necessary answers. So that there is no room left for conflicts and someone else’s game against Ukraine.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, confirmed Monday that his assistant, Hennadiy Chastyakov, was killed on his birthday when an unknown explosive device went off in one of the gifts.

“Today, under tragic circumstances, on his birthday, my assistant and close friend, Major Hennadiy Chastyakov, died in the family circle,” Zaluzhny wrote on Telegram,

“An unknown explosive device went off in one of the gifts. Hennadiy is survived by his wife and four children. My deepest condolences to the family,” he added.

Zaluzhny called Chastyakov’s death an “unspeakable pain and heavy loss for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for me personally.”

Investigations are now taking place into the circumstances surrounding Chastyakov’s death, he said.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday that it has destroyed multiple drones over Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula it has occupied since 2014.

“On the morning of November 7, an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack using seventeen aircraft-type UAVs on objects on the territory of the Russian Federation was stopped,” the ministry said on Telegram. A UAV is an unmanned aerial vehicle, or drone.

“Duty air defense systems destroyed nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and intercepted eight over the Black Sea and the territory of the Republic of Crimea,” it added.

Ukraine has not publicly commented on the alleged attack and CNBC was unable to immediately verify the information.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has been typified by the use of drone warfare. Drones continue to be vital weapons for both sides, used as both explosive devices and for surveillance and reconnaissance.

— Holly Ellyatt

The Kremlin said Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet announced his decision to run in the 2024 election.

Citing six unnamed sources, Reuters reported earlier that Putin had decided to run in in March vote next year.

Asked to comment on the report, Kremlin Dmitry Peskov told TASS news agency that “Putin has not yet made any statements on this matter. And the campaign itself has not yet been officially announced.

There is little real political plurality in Russia and even supposed “opposition” parties generally support Putin’s government. Peskov himself previously said in September that “if we assume that the president stands as a candidate, then it is obvious that there can be no real competition for the president at this current stage.”

The Russian presidential elections are scheduled to take place on March 17, 2024. TASS reported that the Federation Council, or Senate (the upper house of Russia’s parliament, or Federal Assembly) will make an official decision on the date of elections in December, after which political parties must hold their pre-election congresses and officially nominate candidates. 

Changes to Russia’s constitution in 2021 means Putin, age 71, can run for another two terms in office, potentially remaining in office until 2036.

Ukraine’s 128th separate Transcarpathian Mountain Assault Brigade confirmed Monday that 19 of its soldiers died in a Russian strike on an awards ceremony last Friday.

“The missile attack by an insidious enemy took the lives of 19 fighters of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade,” it said on Facebook.

“Now a thorough check of all the circumstances of the tragedy is being conducted, until it is completed we call you not to spread unverified, often fake information.”

“Our best fighters have died… We express our sincere condolences to their relatives and promise to pay back 100 times more for our brothers,” the post concluded.

The deaths have stoked public anger given that Russia attacked the brigade during an awards ceremony, an even that was seen as an easy target.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took the unusual step of addressing the incident and losses in his nightly address on Sunday, admitting that the “tragedy could have been avoided.”

Vladimir Putin has decided to run in the March presidential election, a move that will keep him in power until least 2030, as the Kremlin chief feels he must steer Russia through the most perilous period in decades, six sources told Reuters.

Putin, who was handed the presidency by Boris Yeltsin on the last day of 1999, has already served as president for longer than any other Russian ruler since Josef Stalin, beating even Leonid Brezhnev’s 18-year tenure. Putin turned 71 on Oct. 7.

The sources, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of Kremlin politics, said that news of Putin’s decision had trickled down and that advisers were now preparing for the campaign and a Putin election.

For Putin, who opinion polls show enjoys approval ratings of 80% inside Russia, the election is a formality if he runs: with the support of the state, the state media and almost no mainstream public dissent, he is certain to win.

“The decision has been made – he will run,” said one of the sources who has knowledge of planning. A choreographed hint is due to come within a few weeks, another source said, confirming a Kommersant newspaper report last month.

Another source, also acquainted with the Kremlin’s thinking, confirmed that a decision had been made and that Putin’s advisers were preparing for Putin’s participation. Three other sources said the decision had been made: Putin will run.

“The world we look out upon is very dangerous,” said one of the sources.

— Reuters

Eyewitness accounts from deployed Russian troops in Ukraine suggest that the soldiers’ battle against the elements remains a major preoccupation for Russia’s army, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Sunday.

In an intelligence update on X, formerly known as Twitter, the ministry said Russian soldiers who recently returned from Ukraine who were speaking at the Ogakov Readings military affairs conference in Moscow on Nov. 1 described being “wet from head to toe” for weeks on end on the front line.

“One soldier highlighted that the risk of fire alerting Ukrainian forces meant that they ‘couldn’t even boil a mug of tea.’ They highlighted living and eating ‘monotonous’ food in pervasive mud,” the U.K. noted.

Maintaining a decent level of personal comfort and sound administration in defensive positions is challenging for any army, the ministry noted, “however, open-source evidence suggests a generally very poor level on enforcement of basic field administration amongst Russian forces.”

“This is likely partially caused by a deficit in motivated junior commanders as well as variable logistical support.”

— Holly Ellyatt