One of the year’s most hotly anticipated movies, “Deadpool & Wolverine,” is so far delivering on its promised hype with $96 million in domestic sales in its opening night, according to Comscore data.
The summer blockbuster is on track to exceed $200 million domestically for the weekend, say industry analysts. It would be a record-breaking feat for the franchise.
“It is a major industry benchmark for an R-rated movie to open (at) $200 million, literally unheard of until this title,” said Daniel Loria, editorial director at Box Office Pro.
The first Deadpool movie set the record for the highest grossing opening weekend when it was released in 2016 with roughly $132 million, and “Deadpool 2” cinched the second-place spot with $125 million in domestic sales in 2018. But even adjusted for inflation, both films pale in comparison with the third installation’s anticipated $200 to $220 million, according to Loria.
An opening weekend of this magnitude would cement “Deadpool & Wolverine” alongside some of Marvel’s highest-grossing flagship films, including 2012’s “The Avengers” ($207 million) and 2018’s “Black Panther” ($202 million).
“This would rank among the top 10 openings of all-time and marks the sixth-highest Friday ever reported at the box office,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “This also marks the highest opening weekend for Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman and (director) Shawn Levy.”
Dergarabedian added the promotional efforts behind the film, its critical success and audience enthusiasm have “made this a late July weekend for the cinematic history books.”
According to Box Office Pro data, the excitement surrounding “Deadpool & Wolverine” has propelled demand for theater showings, increasing the number of times the movie is being screened at movie theaters across the country. It currently holds 43% of the showtime market share across the United States.
The movie has received a 97% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes, the second highest for a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie behind “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” and secured an ‘A’ CinemaScore, a mark on par with its two predecessors.
Although the summer box office was off to a sputtering start after a tepid spring, there have been several blockbusters invigorating the industry.
“Since June, there has been a nonstop parade of over-performing blockbusters starting with ‘Bad Boys: Ride Or Die,’ and continuing with ‘Inside Out 2,’ ‘A Quiet Place: Day One,’ ‘Despicable Me 4,’ ‘Twisters,’ and now ‘Deadpool & Wolverine,’ making for one of the most notable string of hits in summer movie history,” said Dergarabedian.
Last week, Disney announced “Inside Out 2” has become the highest grossing animated film of all time, raking in $1.46 billion at the global box office and dethroning former record holder, 2019’s “Frozen 2.”
Until the film’s release on June 16, domestic sales had been lagging more than 25% behind 2023’s performance, according to Comscore data. But less than three weeks after its release, the year-over-year domestic box office revenue deficit shrunk from 27% to 19%.
Now, the deficit stands at 16.9% and it could keep shrinking depending on how “Deadpool & Wolverine” performs. This time last year, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” was the top film with a domestic gross of more than $574 million. Meanwhile, the enduring success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” — both released on July 21 — helped to push the cumulative 2023 domestic box office revenue past $9 billion, the highest it’s been since the pandemic.
Although analysts are predicting a more lukewarm total for 2024, the successful summer movie slate is positioning the industry to further close the gap.
“This weekend’s performance certainly makes us more optimistic for the box office prospects for 2024, but we have a long way to go before the end of the year and year-over-year comparisons will keep us on a seesaw of ups and downs,” said Dergarabedian, estimating the full-year box office will land between $8.2 and $8.7 billion. “The fact that we will likely wind up at $8 billion plus, considering how weak first quarter and April were in terms of revenue, is quite impressive.”
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