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The Senate candidate in Ohio endorsed by Donald Trump, Bernie Moreno, has won a closely watched Republican primary contest and will face off against longtime Democratic senator Sherrod Brown in what is almost certain to be one of the most hotly contested congressional races this November.
The Associated Press called the three-way Republican primary for Moreno, a former luxury car dealership owner, just over an hour after the polls closed on Tuesday night. The Moreno campaign received a boost in the final stretch of campaigning after Trump joined the local businessman for a rally at the weekend.
The rally made headlines nationwide after Trump warned there would be a “bloodbath” if he lost November’s presidential election, as part of rambling remarks in which he threatened to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese cars manufactured in Mexico.
Moreno’s victory in the Ohio primary will be seen as a victory for Trump, and the latest demonstration of the former president’s enduring grip on the Republican grassroots.
Moreno defeated Matt Dolan, a more moderate state legislator who had received the endorsement of Mike DeWine, the state’s popular Republican governor who has at times been a pointed critic of Trump, as well as a third candidate who consistently trailed in the polls, Frank LaRose.
Dolan’s campaign and affiliated groups narrowly outspent Moreno on the airwaves, with the Dolan campaign splashing out more than $10.6mn on campaign advertising in the run-up to the primary, according to AdImpact data. The Buckeye Leadership Fund, a fundraising vehicle backing Dolan, spent an additional $7mn to promote their candidate.
The Moreno campaign spent about $8.5mn and Buckeye Values PAC, which backed him, spending $1.7mn. Moreno also benefited from a $6mn ad blitz from Club for Growth Action, the Charles Koch-backed group.
Many Democrats had also rooted for Moreno, betting that the Trump-aligned candidate would be easier for Brown to beat in a general election. Senate Majority PAC, a fundraising vehicle linked to Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate majority leader, spent at least $2.5mn on ads intended to drive more support for Moreno ahead of the primary with Trump’s base.
One 30-second television ad from Senate Majority PAC said Moreno was “too conservative for Ohio” and that if elected, he would “do Donald Trump’s bidding”.
But many political veterans caution Brown, who chairs the powerful Senate banking committee, faces a steep uphill battle if he is to hold on to his seat.
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Ohio in 2016 by an eight-point margin, and four years later, beat Joe Biden there by about eight points again. While Brown was able to win re-election in the 2018 midterms by a nearly seven-point margin, analysts expect Trump to once again easily carry Ohio in 2024 — meaning a large number of his voters would need to “split” their ticket and vote for the former president and the Democratic incumbent senator in order for Brown to win again this year.
Kyle Kondik, a non-partisan political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and author of The Bellwether, a book about Ohio’s electoral history, has rated the Senate race a “toss-up.”
“Brown is a proven incumbent, and he will be able to generate some crossover support. But this is a state that Trump is likely to win by high single digits,” Kondik said.
He added that Ohio would be “must win” for the Democrats if they want to retain control of the Senate, given the few opportunities for the party to pick up additional seats in the upper chamber of Congress this November.
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