July jobs forecast: 200,000. Still too hot for the Fed, but the devil is in the details.

Is July going to be the month when U.S. job creation falls below 200,000 for the first time in two and a half years? Wall Street thinks it’s going to be close, but the labor market has shown surprising vigor.

Here’s what to watch for in the July U.S. employment report, due on Friday morning.

The forecast

The U.S. is expected to…